Jon · 5 AM walk · SoHo · salt 78

Ukraine hit a Moscow refinery in its largest drone attack of the year and Russia promised Kyiv the same. Into Monday's open, oil is down two and a half percent. Jon, on his 5 AM walk.

Overnight into Monday 21 September the live-news lane on the AirPort tape carried the weekend's war in one line after another: Ukraine's largest drone attack of the year hit a Moscow refinery (Spokesman-Review, 03:00 UTC), Russia vowed a harsh retaliation on Kyiv (Sky News Arabia, Al-Bilad), Putin's party led the wartime Duma election, Washington prepared a new round of Russia sanctions, and Zelensky and Trump agreed to meet at the UN General Assembly. The market read a different story. CNBC at 02:14 UTC: oil falls as crude flows remain 'surprisingly strong'; CENTCOM says Hormuz flows are at a six-month high; Brent slipped to about $101 from Friday's $103.21 front-month close. In US pre-market the oil ETF USO was down 2.5%, Brent's BNO 1.8%, the energy sector 1.6%, while the S&P 500 ETF was up 0.7% and the defence ETF 0.6%. Jon walks at 5 AM to think; nobody knows what he does for work.